I'm loving The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb! Really well written non-fiction. Somehow Mr. Taleb has made a complex non-fiction book into a page turner. This is a masterful book about how surprises can change everthing and how we understand the workings of our daily lives and the world much less than we think we do.
This delusion of certainty and knowledge can cause us regularly to make bad decisions in our lives. The whole housing and credit crunch mess is a perfect example.
Taleb argues that in simpler times things were more predictable and linear but now we live in a world where winner takes all or close to it. This is a complex argument and I'm not doing it justice.
Blogging beyond the diary-level is akin to trying to write a best-seller. According to Taleb, gaining wide readership is an endeavor with long odds. (Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail loves this book, by the way.)
Besides being a blogger with ambition albeit not a lot of time to invest, I'm also a software developer another occupation where The Black Swan holds sway.
A few will strike it rich with a software hit and the rest will labor in obscurity with dissappointing results. You don’t know whether you will get lucky one day and reach a tipping point that sweeps you into the bigtime. And even if you do get a hit, will you be a one-hit wonder? it seems a little like playing the lottery at the moment.
Please take a look at this book in your local bookstore and see if you don’t get drawn in.
Taleb is a quant trader who got fascinated by the unexpected and then went into a field where uncertainty reigns supreme. Then he started writing books about it. The Black Swan is currently 34 on the New York Times Bestseller list.