tech ronin

Kindle 2 Rocks, Part 1

 

Deciding to Buy the Kindle 2. After much hemming and hawing about buying a Kindle (see below), I took the plunge Saturday Feb 28 and received my Kindle the following Monday afternoon. After all the months of waiting many Kindle buyers have experienced, I was thrilled with how quickly I could take delivery.

The kindle is a small tablet computer dedicated to a single task - long-form reading. It's primary focus is to make it possible for you to read ebooks with as much pleasure as you do reading conventional books. It seems clear that most people who buy Kindles are very satisfied. Even true geeks, if they are heavy book readers, love Kindle.

Argument to Wait for Apple. Why I think Apple may do a better Kindle:

Amazon is a beginner when it comes to creating hardware/software devices. Apple is the proven expert at this.

The Kindle 1 was clunky. I love good design and wouldn't bite on the design of K1.

Rumors about an Apple mini-tablet persist and I'm sure I'll want one when and if one is released.

The price, at $359, is kind of high. A bit much to spend in this economy for what could be a short-lived transitional device.

When Kindle 2 came out on Feb 24, I watched responses and reviews carefully. I created a saved search on my Twitter clients (Tweetdeck on Mac and Tweetie on my iPhone) so I could see the full spectrum of response. I was seeing a large proportion of positive response and few who didn't like the new Kindle 2.

The avalanche of positive Kindle buzz pushed me over into the buy Kindle now camp. I was convinced not to wait longer by five thoughts:

Apple is very unlikely to use the e-ink screen technology that is so much easier on the eye. As a heavy computer user, e-ink is a welcome relief and similar to reading ink on paper.

Amazon is where I buy the vast majority of my books. I like their prices on Kindle.

Amazon is more motivated regarding ebooks than Apple is - I don't think Apple will do a dedicated device. Apple will do a general-purpose mini-tablet when it does one. It will either be a tablet Mac or a tablet iPhone.

Amazon has an in with book publishers that Apple can't match.

I want to experiment with this new mini-tablet form factor. Amazon offers it and Apple doesn't. I'm an early adopter and I am very attracted to this small Kindle 2 tablet.

It's now March 30, a month later. I'm totally pleased with the purchase. I've learned all sorts of things and have read some good books. Kindle 2 has changed my relationship with reading for the better. I am now searching down the good authors and learning a lot more about books than ever before.

Buying a Kindle is making a commitment to book reading. I didn't think of it at the time, but I was saying to myself that I wanted to make reading books easier. I realize now that transporting books was a major hassle previously. I could only take one to be practical. Now I don't have that problem.

A Few Favorite Resources:

Favorite Kindle Podcast. My favorite resource is: Kindle Chronicles podcast. Comes out every Friday. It was started in August 08 so there are lots of back podcasts for you to catch up on and enjoy. Start with the current one and go backwards perhaps.

Highly Recommended Kindle Guides. You don't need to even read the manual to get a lot out of your Kindle. But if you want to get a ton out of it, try reading these two ebooks: The Complete Guide to the Amazing Amazon Kindle 2 ($2.39) by Stephen Windwalker and The Kindle 2 Cookbook by David Emberson ($3.99). If you've got an iPhone or iPod touch and the Amazon Kindle App, you can download them or the free samples and check them out there if you don't have a Kindle already. I can't emphasize enough how much time you'll save and how much cool stuff you'll learn from either or both of these two guides.

2nd Gen MacBook Air SSD, the new laptop

 

I'm sitting on my couch surfing the web with my MacBook Air. I've been thoroughly delighted with this machine since day 1. It is so light and comfy and, yes, it is a gorgeous piece of tech.

Just a reminder, I do have an iMac 24 sitting in my home office. And, I use it now and then. But when I do, I find being chained to a desk, constraining and uncomfortable after a while. I would much rather sit or lie or lounge in one way or another on my couch, while I work or use my computer recreationally.

Weight matters.  I don't know why but 3 lbs is extraordinarily more manageable to move around and carry than 5.5 lbs. I did own an iBook at one time and its 4+ lbs did not have the same effect. The size is also waaaay smaller (due to the thinness) than the Macbook Pro.

What about the lack of DVD-drive? I've been wanting Apple to dump the DVD drive in their lapltops to lose weight for years now. I don't watch DVDs on my laptop. I use Handbrake to rip them to my hard drive for Apple TV and other use. I can use Remote CD software from another computer with CD - works fine. Most software is downloadable. If I have a Net connection, I can email a file I want to backup to my gmail account where I have an extra 5gb of space if I need it.

What about the lack of ports? It's not bothering me at all. If you hate the trackpad and only use a mouse, 1 USB port would be limiting. I don't have a 3G USB stick, but if and when I do, I would use it in the one slot I have until such time that I needed the slot temporarily for something else. The point is that Apple has taken away what is not David (not essential) to deliver this full screen, keyboard, high speed, gorgeous screen in as trim a package as possible. It truly is a feat of engineering.

Constant Companion. There's never a reason to leave the Air home, or hardly ever. It is too easy to take, too useful and enjoyable to resist taking. Unlike my MacBook Pro, it competes well with my iPhone for comfortable non-work computer use. You don't have to struggle with the decision of whether to take your notebook when you leave the house. Before, the answer was mostly no, now the answer is always yes - no struggle, just yes.

Frequent Travelers and rich people aren't the only ones who deserve to have a Macbook Air. I know the tech elite is all agog for netbooks, but I think they took their eye off the ball on this one. The Air uses a core 2 duo processor not an atom. It has a 13" LED screen that is probably the best on any Mac. It has a 120 gb drive.

But it is so expensive. There's some truth in that but I bought a Macbook Pro for the same price or more than this SSD Macbook Air. And the Air has replaced it. If you regard an Air as a travel-only device, it is an expensive luxury. As your main Mac, it is a different story. Maybe cut corners and get a refurb unit. If you are a casual computer user, I'm sure you can survive without the SSD and pay $1799 or less for the AIr. That's not much more than the highend Macbook.

As we move from Notebook to more mobile devices, the Macbook Air earns the right to be used a lot. After you use an iPhone for a while, getting out a 5.5 lb Macbook Pro and putting it on your lap while you watch TV doesn't seem worth the brick on your lap. Too much. Rather use the slower iPhone. Less hassle. That's why the Macbook Air exists. [My first post on the Air]

Dipping a Toe into WordPress, Part 3

No further progress in actually building out my new WordPress blog. First I was stuck trying to pick a web host and that's really not settled yet but, for now I'm on Dreamhost. But now I have 2 new key questions: (1) What wp theme shall I use as the foundation of my blog? and (2) Shall I use Google Apps with email for my email hosting piece? [Links: Part 1 and Part 2]

I want to focus for a minute on themes. The main point is that choosing a theme isn't just about looks, it is also about what programmatic extras are built into the theme. What can the theme handle?

This means choosing a theme is almost like choosing a software product. You need to know who is behind the theme. What can it do and not do? Where is the author taking that theme in the future?

One of my associates, an independent photographer, is thinking of doing a WordPress blog for his business web presence. He learned about a WordPress theme called K2 which is a whole sub-program that runs underneath WordPress. It has jazzy extras and supports some cool AJAX behaviors.

Keep in mind that a theme can wind up not being compatible with the next WordPress update. In fact, that's almost a given if it has lots of programmatic functionality. That means your theme-maker better be into this for the long-term. What if the theme has bugs on its own the the theme-maker has other commitments and can't keep the bugs in check?

Also, what if the theme is abandoned? And then WP gets updated and the theme doesn't work well or doesn't work anymore? All I'm saying is that this now means that I'm going to be doing some more research before I decide on a theme.

Call me a worry-wart, but as a long-time software developer myself, I think about this stuff.

Dipping a Toe into WordPress, Part 2

I got my first WordPress blog installed last night. That means I have a site up and running - nothing more. I don't want to start a brand new blog. I want to replace my static tokerud.com website with a WordPress blog.

In order to find out about WordPress and it's strengths and weaknesses, I needed to try something. I could have started a blog on *something* but I don't want to start something I'm not going to keep using. Starting a new blog is the easiest thing. Converting a blog like this to WordPress is probably the hardest thing to do without heartache and trouble. I chose the middle way. Start building a replacement for tokerud.com with a WordPress blog at it's center.

My new blog is currently entitled Tokerud Blog. The tokerud.com site, which is still running, by the way, was called Tokerud Domain. Not original, but then the site is the web end of my Tokerud Consulting Group company and Tokerud Consulting Group Blog was a mouthful.

I plan to develop my Tokerud Blog and fill in all the content from the tokerud.com site that I deem worth moving before I transfer the domain. OK. You can look at it in its very incomplete state here if you like. Remember, I have about 3 hours into it at this point. I have not found the theme of my dreams as a starting point yet. That is going to require more research.

I chose to host my own blog. Instead of choosing WordPress.com to host a WordPress blog, I chose to get maximum flexibility by using WordPress.org and installing it on a web host. I don't want to manage my own server right now. I'm not the IT type. So, I went shopping for a web host service as of the end of Part 1.

Which Web Host Did I Choose? As I mentioned in my last post, the WordPress site gives you a list of recommended web hosts. I researched those recommended hosts. I searched twitter on each of the hosts. I checked out their home pages, their promises, their pricing etc.

Why I Chose DreamHost. They had an offer for $5.95 a month. That sounded good. It winds up being $10.95 a month if you pay monthly as opposed to in advance. The only way you get $5.95/mo is by paying for 10 years. That is stupid if you ask me. So, false advertising is my call on that one. However, more people were on DreamHost than anyone and quite a few liked them. Some hated them. I finally went with them based on a beginner WordPress tutorial that said DreamHost was one of the easiest web hosts for a beginner. Easy attracts me.

Telling you everything I learned about each of these hosts would be a long story. And, it was taking too long to get all the information I needed, so I just kind of picked one. I almost went with MediaTemple but decided that might be more for experienced IT types than me. I actually love all that IT stuff once I am past the beginner stages but hate it while I'm getting stuck and frustrated in the early going.

Because DreamHost seemed to be the most popular among Twitter users, I checked into them first and more thoroughly. I corresponded with the sales people and got decent and understandable answers. I could see a way to make my plan work. The hardest obstacle is still to transfer my domain and email from Forest.net to DreamHost.

By the way, although I didn't research it as much, I had mediatemple.net as the #2 candidate by the end of the process. Since I'm on a month-to-month contract with DreamHost and haven't moved my domain yet, I may end up there. We'll see how the next few steps go.

When I got tired of researching last night and just decided to go with Dream Host, here's what happened:

1. I was surprised that it cost me $70 to start. They charge $50 as a start-up fee and I don't remember anything about that in my reading. Maybe it was in the fine print.
2. Creating the web host account was straight forward. You do have to wait after filling in the credit card details and placing the order while the card is approved, and your FTP site is set up. That only took 10 minutes. 
3. Next step was to use their 1-click WordPress 2.7 installer process. That seemed to go OK in 5-10 minutes, but it was supposed to be followed by an email to me that the WordPress account was ready to go. Didn't happen.  
4. I waited and watched. Finally over 2 hours later, I found the support request link and formally submitted an inquiry about the missing notification. It never happened but instead a notification had been placed in my Dream Host support log. I just didn't know where to look and had been told to expect an email. Support got back to me within 15 minutes with a URL and instructions for how to proceed. 
5. Then I ran the famous 5-minute WordPress install and that took 5 seconds. Good to go. It creates a 1st post and comment for you to work with as you learn the ropes. You can simply change the post and delete the comment.

WordPress Themes. I'm not all the way there yet. I did easily find a way to pick a theme. It's not the theme I want, but it will do for the moment - it's the lesser evil compared to the generic blue WordPress theme.

Email. I haven't figured out what is going on with my email. That doesn't seem to work yet. But it doesn't matter much because my *old* email still works since I haven't moved my domain yet. I'll need to research that.

I chose the option to use Gmail for all my email. Another one of those really big decisions I wasn't the least bit prepared for. I don't really know how this works or what it means. I just clicked the checkbox for Gmail and am hoping for the best. Right now it doesn't work. So I need to research this. Will try sending support another email on this today and reading some of the documentation about it if I can find it. It looks like this gets me into Google Apps as an integral part of my DreamHost account.

Bottom line: I survived. I have a WordPress blog to play with and I am optimistic that I'll be able to create a good-looking WordPress Blog-driven tokerud.com site. Will let you know how it goes. [Next installment: Part 3]

Dipping a Toe into WordPress, Part 1

Since I'm now married to TypePad for blogging, why am I thinking of doing new blog-based sites with WordPress? Partly because I'm curious. It's a grass is greener kind of thing. Is WordPress better? What am I missing? And, as a technology consultant, could it hurt to know something about both of the two top blogging platforms? I don't think so.

If I'm going to explore WordPress as a platform for web presence, I should start by converting a static site to WordPress. Up till now, I always thought of converting my TypePad blog to WordPress as my option. But, conversion is harder than starting fresh. So, Tokerud.com, which only has about 7 pages is the perfect candidate for a first WordPress blog.

My plan is to convert my two static websites: tokerud.com and studio-manager.com into WordPress sites with a blog at the center of each. Why do this? Mainly because blogs generate more hits than static websites do. So, the question is, why wouldn't a domain of mine have a blog at its center? I'll probably add notes to this post as I go.

At the WordPress.org site, I found recommendations of these 6 webhosts:

• Blue Host
• DreamHost  Oops. One demerit. DreamHost wants to auto-install WP 2.6. What about 2.7 I say? Demerit #2 - the wordpress page doesn't have a tell me more link, just a sign up button. I hate that!
• MediaTemple Demerit #1: big headline: Built to Scale. Doesn't sound like my kind of small business mentality. That get rich quick stuff doesn't work for me. Plus #1: "We answer the phone." Now you are speaking my language!
• WestHost  Demerit #1: HQ in Utah. Need I say more. Plus #1: they list a phone number on their front page.
• HostICan Plus #1: Tech Nightowl 
• Laughing Squid  First plus is they are local to SF, my neck of the woods. I can go over an pound on their door some day if I have to. Demerit 1: tiny text, white on black. Not impressed with what I saw on the website at first glance. Plus #2: I didn't feel I was in for a slam bam thank you mam experience. No high pressure marketing like Dreamhost. These are probably a bunch of techies - not marketers. Techies can be a little ADD though so you get lots of sincerity and technical knowhow but maybe some slipping through the cracks behavior.

I'm seriously considering switching to one of these recommended hosts. They seem to offer really good prices and can probably support me better in this particular endeavor. Currently, I'm hosting my two domains at Forest.net which has a great reputation as a Filemaker-friendly webhost for hosting FileMaker databases. So far, I've never hosted a FileMaker database there, so I may forego that expertise for WordPress expertise right now. The ideal for me would be a webhost that is FileMaker and WordPress savvy...

Shopping for a good WordPress book. Sorry to say that Word Press for Dummies (Nov 07) is highly regarded but a new version is just days away from release so I have to wait. There's a book written by Maria Langer called WordPress 2, but it was published July 06. Blog Tipz has a helpful overview of these books and a couple others.

While I wait for the new Word Press for Dummies book due Feb 17 09, I'll research the recommended bloghosts. How fast can I switch hosts and be up with a WP blog for tokerud.com? That's all I wanna know right now.

Looks like I will need to call the various candidate webhosts to get specific questions answered. I will have to move my files from my current host to the new host. Blue Host says they don't move stuff for you but recommend EZSiteMove.com. Looks like another cost to me. Hmmm... Remember that these sites are advertising $5.95/month for their hosting. What is not included and ends up dramatically increasing your cost? That's what I need to find out.

Your comments are most welcome. If you know more than I do, do you have a tip for me? 

This is not as easy as you might hope. I haven't even started entering technical information yet and I'm already getting worn out. [Next installment: Part 2.

I Support Commenter's Rights and run TypePad Connect

I'm running TypePad Connect on all my blogs now. This is a brand new thing and is still in Beta but the basics seem to work. It makes the comments on my blogs more like a forum. The software is new and I'm just learning but soon we'll have threaded comments here. And commenters will be able to have profiles which they can embellish with a photo or an avatar and they can provide information about themselves there as well.

This enhanced commenting system recognizes and elevates the commenters among us to the important community members we've always been. And supports our status with our own profile pages and linkages to all our comments made on a blog enhanced with TypePad Connect. The technology makes it easier for commenters to interact with each other.

We already had two good commenting systems out there - IntenseDebate and Disqus. I have been interested in them because they allow a *commenter* to have a page where, in theory, all his or her comments can be found even though they may be spread out over many diverse blogs. The problem is that most blogs don't use these systems so only blogs that support them capture your comments. You can see my Disqus comments here.

As someone who posts a comment now and then, the advantage to you is that if the blog has one of these new powerful commenting systems and you've registered with them, you can easily keep track of the conversations you've participated in and go back and see how things are going. You may have posted a question but don't remember where so can't easily go back and find out if an answer got posted in response.

TypePad Connect is meant to compete with Disqus and IntenseDebate and runs not just on TypePad but also works with WordPress, Blogger, Movable Type and Tumblr. That's helpful. Ideally, these competing commenting systems will make themselves communicate so that you can see, for example, my Disqus comments on my TypePad Connect page. When that gets sorted, nirvana will be near.

Now your comments here and on my other blogs can be managed in such a way that they will all link to a page for you. Should you choose to register with TypePad Connect. I hope you do. You will be able to embellish your comments page with a photo or description. Also, readers will be able to drill into the comments of any registered user and see all of them.

I believe that comments made on blogs are content that deserves attention just like the blog post itself. Twitter's microblogging has borne that out. I've always wanted to be able to read more comments from the same person who made an interesting comment to begin with. You can do that by clicking on the icon for the comment in any blog post. Enjoy.

P.S. This feature is brand new and may be a little rough around the edges the first few weeks.

2nd Gen MacBook Air SSD, 10 days in

I couldn't be happier with my new MacBook Air. It is unimaginably small and light. I saw it, I picked it up at the store many times. I knew intellectually it was light and thin but that didn't really sink in until I had it on my lap for the first time. Now, this is a laptop!

I got the SSD model for $2400 on Amazon. That was approximately $700 extra to get the SSD instead of 4200 rpm 1.8 inch hard drive model. I can't really tell you how much the SSD is helping but I can say that I get all the speed I want with this model. I don't and haven't thought, maybe I should use my 2 year-old MacBook Pro or 2.8 ghz iMac because I need more speed.

I bought the USB to ethernet adapter which is still awaiting a reason to be. I figured I will need it occasionally where wi-fi isn't available. I didn't buy the external DVD drive. I have an iMac with a good drive and the remote feature works perfectly. Downloads will suit the vast majority of my needs.

The Gen 2 MacBook Air SSD is what I was hoping for and more. I'm thinking this is my 90% time computer. The iMac is going to be for when I need lots of screen real estate and to keep my connection to the many hard drives I've got hooked up there. My MacBook Pro is an extra machine and is serving well while I get the data I want over the Air which I chose to build from scratch rather than transfer apps and data from my MBP.

I do a morning walk of about 1-1/2 miles to my local coffee place and I've always wanted to be able to carry a notebook. I tried taking my Powerbook 15 a shorter distance a few years ago and my back gave out after about a week. Finally, I'm testing the dream again. I've brought the Air with me every day for 10 days with nary a twinge. I got a light neoprene case (incase) for protection and carry it in a super light knapsack. These together only weigh a pound. I'm doing just fine with my 4 lb pack.

The MacBook Air is the Ergonomic King for sure. You can have it on your lap, stomach, knee - whereever. Moving it as you shift positions. All those easy options means that I don't get stiff or sore because I'm mobile while working. I'm not used to this level of comfort in my heavy-computer use.

Even in this bad, bad economy, the Air makes sense. For some people, the netbook might work. For me and I think many others, the access to a full-size keyboard, full-strength computing and 13 inch screen in a tiny 3 lb package is all the computer they need. I can't get what I want done with a Netbook. And, I don't want to try. My iPhone will handle the little stuff.

If you are an active knowledge-worker, you owe it to yourself to try one of these out next time you even think you might want a new computer. My days of lugging around a heavy notebook are over. My back is going to love me!

OK, Start Worrying about the Economy

On August 24, I wrote a blog post called Don't Worry (Too Much) about the Economy. I recommend it if you haven't read it yet as a quick primer on some of the issues we are dealing with.

We had a near financial collapse this week that was at least temporarily averted before we had widespread runs on banks. The US government is trying to formulate and get congressional approval for an extremely expensive bail out of many big-time financial institutions but it is not clear that these measures will stop the madness.

Actually, from my perspective, this isn't madness but we have had a lot of panic. And for good reason. If you think your personal bank might fail or your money market account can't keep your money safe, you panic. We had that this week.

The bail out proposed this week is bigger than anything since the Depression. That should be a hint that we are facing devastating financial conditions. The bail out is proposed to avert what looks to the Fed and Treasury as the possibility of a worldwide financial collapse that will stop the economies of the world, trash the bond and stock markets and throw many millions out of work.

Unfortunately, the US government will be signing up for a huge financial liability now that could easily double our national debt. Amazingly that fact seems to be the lesser evil. I recommend you make sure you know a lot about where your money is and how it is invested. I've personally spent several hours this week on financial matters. It is not pretty.

Denial is futile. Worry is appropriate. Homework is a good place to start. You may want to further safeguard your assets. I pulled a few hundred dollars out of my bank so far. Haven't moved any of my investments.

Keep in mind that if you own a lot of stocks that have dropped in value and you sell low and buy something safe like treasuries, gold, CDs, you won't be able to get in on the recovery of those stocks. The advantage of selling out is if the market goes down a couple thousand more points, you will have sold high relative to the absolute bottom and could in theory buy in lower, ameliorating your losses.

The little guy rarely has command of the details of his or her finances to the point where he or she can buy and sell at just the right times. That's why I haven't sold anything. Not enough information and no way to make a transaction faster than the hedge and pension funds (or even the day-traders) who are equipped to move fast and have the best information.

That's why buy and hold was invented. The reason you are told to keep some liquidity by having a good-sized chunk of your holdings in cash is so you can avoid having to sell your stocks and mutual funds when they are down. With any luck, eventually we will work through this financial quagmire and good times will bring your stock values back above where they are now (the Dow closed at 11388 on Friday after two good days).

I'm extremely concerned about the likelihood that a rushed situation will open up lots of room for corrupt deals made at the expense of the American taxpayer. Deals are going to have to be struck and I'm worried how these will be reviewed and purged of politically expedient or corrupt practices. The market isn't working but I'm afraid the government isn't exactly a paragon of virtue. Seems like big players will muscle in or at least lean on people to get their fair or more than fair share out of all this.

Apple TV with iPhone Remote: Part 1 Getting Started

Alrighty now! Just got my Apple TV going. I replaced my old conventional 50" TV for a shiny new 40" Sony XBR HDTV because I wanted to run Apple TV. The economy tanked around the time I got my HDTV so I am just now getting my Apple TV. This first post is more about Apple TV than the Remote.

First thing to do when you get your Apple TV is to (1) plug a 3rd-party HDMI cable ($20 at the Apple store) plus (2) the included power cable into your HDTV. That was a snap. I placed the Apple TV on top of my DVD player which is a low-slung device with plenty of room above it. looking good. I doubt someone would even notice the Apple TV in my installation without me pointing it out.

You will want a 3rd HDMI port for this assuming you are already filling up 2 HDMI ports with Cable box and DVD player of some kind (hopefully a PSP3). You will sooner or later want an HDMI switcher. The XtremeMac HDMI switcher for $99.95 looks like a major winner. It converts a single HDMI port into 4. See below.

Couldn't get my iPhone working as a Remote at first because I needed to update my Apple TV to the latest software that supports the multiple remotes and the iPhone or iPod touch running the Remote app. It was about a 6 minute process to download the update over my DSL wi-fi.

Some gorgeous stock photos of flowers are going by on the screen. I'm getting why photos are nice to look at on an HDTV already.

Woohoo! My iPhone 3G just showed up under the new Remotes heading (Settings / General). I selected it and before me is a 14" x 14" giant icon for the iPhone Remote app.

Way cool, all I need to do is use my regular remote to enter the 4 digit number that is appearing on my iPhone Remote. Takes a while to enter on the dumb remote but I have to admit the menus in Apple TV are sexy. Almost fun to use.

Yay! It looks like I can pair my 2nd iPhone too while I'm at it. Let's see. Firing up iPhone 2G. Select Remote. OK. Good to go. Just in case my housemate wants to use a remote.

The Remote software takes me right into the iTunes part of the iPhone using the music that has already automatically migrated to the Apple TV. This is so cool that I'm already thinking I need to buy some speakers for my TV setup. I had some giant Infinity speakers from the old home stereo days. I gave them away to my sister when we moved last Fall. But now, I see the need for new speakers. Soon!

I picked my latest playlist. It shows the album art like it were an old time record album cover except even bigger. Finally. Now we need to see all the cover art, cover notes and the rest. We already needed this on the iPod but now it's worse. A must have. Apple? We need your help here.

Apple's default screen saver has taken over the screen. It is still beautiful but obviously it needs to be under my control. [Update: now my own iPhoto album is the source for my screensaver and music is from one of my chosen playlists playing randomly].

I am going to have to do better than listen to my TV's built-in speakers. They're pretty good but I bet a $100 pair would rock so much better. I want some that are about 2" high. Will need to do some online shopping real soon.

Back to iTunes on my MacBook Pro, though. There we have the Apple TV showing up as another device to sync to. It has 3 tabs: Summary, Movies and Photos. I just pick which of my photo albums I want to sync to my AppleTV and click Apply. Easy as can be. This use of iTunes totally works. How could you tolerate something 10x more difficult?

I can see one problem coming. I really don't want to add much to this MacBookPro like HD podcasts and TV shows. Wonder how good the streaming will be from my iMac that has a roomy 500 gig drive plus a couple terabytes of external hard drives hanging off it?

Whoa! I'm watching a slideshow on my TV of my most recent photos including a lot of downloaded photos I've collected. In the background is Eric Clapton doing a damn good job even on my TV speakers. Rock!!!

Gizmodo Video of How to pair iPhone "Remote" to the Apple TV.

Don't Worry (too much) about the Economy

Warning: I'm venturing out of my area of expertise here. I'm not an economist. I did get A's in Macroeconomics at UC Berkeley's MBA program. I follow the economy and stock market while keeping my money mostly in mutual funds. I'm a passionate amateur is all. With that caveat, let's talk about the economy and its prospects.

Nice to see oil dropping precipitously from its lofty heights of around $150 per barrel. It amazes me that people can come to the conclusion that oil is just going to go up and up now. Of course, we've known for years that we could have a problem with oil. After all, it is non-renewable. It will run out eventually. And the experts say that a lot of the easy to get to oil fields are getting pretty thin. But it still doesn't make sense to see a rise of almost 100% in the price of oil in 6 months. That's a bubble folks!

Watch out for bubbles. That's what I'm taking away from the Tech bubble of 1997-2001 and the real estate bubble of 2002-2005. And try to remember reversion to the mean. That means if real estate, tech stocks or oil rise incredibly fast compared to their historical rates of increase, they are likely to fall back later to their historical mean growth rates. Further, if your property value grows 50% this year, you are going to have to pay a lot of that 50% back in reduced future growth rates or declines. Gravity takes over at some point.

The process of a bubble is that (1) for one reason or another prices start rising for a particular thing and (2) that rise attracts the attention of others who start wanting to get in on the increase. So their buying fuels the flame. From there, (3) even more people start thinking they want to get in on this good thing. Then come the "this is a sure thing" stage which is stage 4 before the fall.

The ordinary person, not paying much attention, comes in at this point while the pros are starting to balance their portfolios and prepare for the crash. The well-advised big boys tend to make money going up and then shift gears faster than the so called *wise* crowd and make money while it goes down. The down is also pronounced because people start getting scared and selling and more people sell and then more people get scared and it gets worse before it gets better. Meanwhile the bottom-feader professionals bankrolled by the big boys buy up the undervalued stuff in preparation for the inevitable recovery. Same old, same old.

How am I doing so far? Where are we in all this now? Well, there's been a brief but pronounced oil bubble that seems to now be on its way back down. Other commodities are bubbling to a lesser extent. These things are more volatile due to unrestricted betting and margin calls that are being allowed on the various exchanges. I hope we see more reigning in here soon.

But, what's going to happen? We are in an economic downturn currently driven by the real estate, mortgage-backed securiities crash and aided and abetted by inflation in China and the oil price spike. We've already lowered interest rates a lot and given out tax rebates to try to soften the fall.

What's next? Oil down will help the 2nd half. Dollar is strengthening, that's nice and helps drive oil down. The dollar is still down so exports should be good. Unemployment is still rising and should continue to be a problem for the next year at least since employment tends to be a lagging phenomenon relative to recessions. I don't really care whether they call this a recession but it sure is a major slow down and is not fun.

My Predictions. There are only three big negatives we have to worry about right now: foreclosures, banks going under or giant bail outs, and unemployment. People who were struggling during the *good times* of 2004-2006 are really having a hard time. People who have never had a really hard time are suffering now in many cases. These three factors are going to hurt a lot of people short term. People will die in worst case scenarios due to lack of good medical and housing (homeless) and even lack of food or transportation.

The Depression lasted 10 years. That was probably 5x worse than this downturn is likely to get. We don't know, maybe we'll get the worst of the worst. But, chances are pretty good that we'll bounce back. We have Japan's 10+ year economic mess of the 90's to learn from and we don't have a lot of the ingredients that kept that downturn going as long as it went.

Oh, one last downside before I wrap up. We do have the aging of the population thrown in on top of this. That should start kicking in more strongly around 2010. It would be nice if we could get our growth back into the mean zone by then so that we don't have the demographics weighing down on us when we are still down. That's a joker in the deck which you can worry about if you like.

Saving for a Rainy Day is something to get better at. Don't worry be happy? Not quite. Americans have gotten into a major consumption habit that does need to be reigned in. We will be reigned in forcibly if we don't do it ourselves sensibly. I'm actually viewing this downturn as a great lesson and good jolt of reality to those of us who were on automatic pilot with the credit card out and savings plans on the back burner.

Oops. The Middle Class is eroding rapidly. Statistics and experts are beginning to reach a consensus that the global economy that got started in the early 90's under Clinton is a more volatile and beastly creation that the economy of old. In the global economy there are winners and losers and not a whole lot of people in the middle. In the US we've long been proud of our large middle class. That middle class is now eroding. I'm all in favor of smart, non-pork-barrel Democratic initiatives to compensate and help save the remnants of a middle class in this country and elsewhere.

Don't worry, but keep on your toes. Try to keep negativity in check. Enjoy the wonders of life. For all we know trends beyond our imagination will take us in directions we can't yet foresee. Don't assume you know what is going to happen. That's a good place to stand.

Life is short so don't waste it worrying. Realism + Action = Good. It often takes bad things happening to wake people up out of their apathy and motivate them to do something that needs doing.

Grading Apple's New Releases 2 Weeks in

On July 11, Apple launched 4 major initiatives: iPhone 3G, iPhone 2.0 software, the App Store and MobileMe. There's no way Apple planned that all 4 would launch on the same day. I'm sure Apple hoped to release some of these things in prior weeks but ran into unforeseen problems that delayed them.

Finally, the 22-country iPhone 3G release date came. That was a hard deadline and it required the other pieces. So damn the torpedoes! As might have been anticipated, everything seemed to go awry to one degree or another

iPhone 3G Launch. People encountered enormous and interminable lines at Apple stores trying to buy the iPhone 3G and many went away without a phone. Previous iPhone owners endured hours when they couldn't use their old phone or their new one. Nevertheless, a million iPhone 3Gs were sold over the first weekend. Shortages continued for days. C-

iPhone 3G. What about the phone itself? The price cut worked in driving sales even if AT&T will recoup the discount in monthly fees down the line. People who got good 3G in their area were pleased with the speed bump. People who didn't get good reception like me were not pleased about paying an extra $15/month with little recompense. Most people liked the GPS, but original iPhone owners noted that they also liked the new artificial GPS pretty well. Battery life doesn't go very far when you use 3G, GPS and all the new apps including games. The phone looks a little better, sounds better and has better reception. B

MobileMe didn't work or wasn't accessible. The so-called "Push" people expected didn't push both ways in a timely manner. Since then all sorts of syncing problems have ensued and in some cases data has been lost. The current status is that MobileMe is a MobileMess. D

iPhone 2.0 software. Mixed bag all the way. The apps are all over the map but in general are great fun and offer quite a lot of utility to boot. The downside is that (1) you'll use up your batteries in a hurry if you are a big gamer and (2) iPhone 2.0 OS is slower, sometimes 3x slower. B-

The App Store. The App store is a wonder. The main thing is you can buy apps in a button touch on your iPhone. They install automatically. This is a break through for software purchasing and installation. Awesome! Updating is just as good when it works right from your phone, but there have been reports that sometimes the only way to upgrade is to do it in iTunes on your computer. The applications are a huge addition to the iPhone. A-

Loving the Obama Berlin Speech Today

Reading the New York Times story with excerpts and seeing the photo above put a smile on my face today. I love hearing the conciliatory words. Go Obama!

Got my iPhone 3G: All is Right With the World

Picture this. Sitting in the Corte Madera mall's Peet's Coffee which just opened a couple days ago. It's big and it is 20 feet from Apple's door. I'm sipping a Dark Chocolate Carmel Mocha Freddo on Apple. They are handing out free tickets for any drink you want at Peet's.

I agonized and recently wrote about my fear (hope) that Apple will release a 32gb iPhone in September along with an even larger 65 gb iPod touch. In the end, I'll survive without paying an additional $100 to get 32gb. The 8 gb model I have been using seemed big enough and an extra 8 gigs will just have to do.

I decided since I had a problem with my gen 1 iPhone after upgrading to 2.0 that I would just do this new iPhone 3G virgin and set it up from scratch. Ultra easy!

I got my 4 email accounts up and running in about 8 minutes.

I got the black 16 gb version. I think that is the one that will be most likely to sell out. I'm leaving tomorrow to go to the FileMaker Developer's conference. A tech conference. I'm pretty sure I could have gotten someone to drive me to the Apple store in Phoenix to pick up an iPhone 3G on Sunday, but the line didn't look too bad when I came by the Apple store at 1:35 pm.

I got in around 3:45. A longer wait than I hoped for but not too bad. I would say, the line was not as festive as last year. I attribute that to the preponderance of *casual* cell phone users and PC users in line. All 3 of my closest line mates were PC users. They didn't really get how cool the iPhone 3G is or at least didn't act like it.

By the way, I talked with a genius at the Apple store about my problems with my old iPhone. He wanted to persuade me that the screen hardware had suddenly failed and that I need to pay $199 to get my 1g iPhone replaced. It does make a cheap and more powerful iPod touch at the moment but I'll first see if there is indeed a software failure going on.

When I plugged my new iPhone in to my MacBook Pro, iTunes knew this was a new phone and asked me to register. I tried but was unable to register. Then it asked if I wanted to restore from the other iPhone that was already synced to this computer. Then it started installing the new applications I bought yesterday at the App store. Cool!

Just to be on the safe side, I checked out the cases and found this really nice Belkin red and black case for $25. It fits the 3G shape and feels good in the hand. The shiny black plastic on the back of the 3G iPhone does seem sturdy, but I didn't want to scratch it on day one. I'm having too much fun right now.

I bought: Super Monkey Ball $9.99, Acid Solitaire $9.99, Anna Karenina 99¢ and Texas Hold'em. And downloaded several free apps: AIM, Evernote, Facebook, Loopt, Remote, Twitterific and WeatherBug. Now that I have 16 gb, I may download a few more. These are very small apps for the most part so you don't really have to worry about the space that much.

So far things are going great. This new iPhone has some subtle niceties including it's more eye-catching and hand-friendly shape. There are little silver grills over the speakers on the bottom and where you listen on a call. The sound is much improved!

Upgrading iPhone 1.1.4 to iPhone 2.0 the details

I had a restored but previously jail-broken iPhone 1.1.4 and the upgrade using the MacRumors iPhone 2 upgrade download worked!!!

I could not wait until the iPhone 2.0 updater appeared in iTunes. That would be who knows when. So, I downloaded from MacRumors. I tried several times with Safari with no luck. But then tried Firefox 3 and that worked without a hitch.

HOWEVER, before you download, make sure you have enough free hard drive space on your computer to completely backup your iPhone. That's what the upgrade process will do first. So clear some room if you need to.

Once you have the file downloaded, you can connect your iPhone and option-click the Check for Update button. Then you just need to navigate to your new downloaded file ending with an extension of ipsw and select it and you will be on your way.

Prepare for a long wait. The first long wait that is a little disturbing gives you this interminable dialog: preparing iPhone for update.

But, finally the dialog will change to "Updating iPhone Software" and then now it is showing "Verifying updated iPhone software". The verify seems to be taking a while.

Remember the big wait will be for transferring everything over to the iPhone that you had on it before. That hasn't started yet. My connected iPhone is just displaying the white Apple at the moment.

OK. Now I'm seeing "Updating iPhone firmware" with the candystripe progress bar that doesn't tell you how much progress you've made.

Oops, I may have blown it. I chose to restore from backup. Hoping that gives me my information but keeps my nice shiny new 2.0 upgrade in place. Hope, hope.

Looks to be good, my info says version 2.0!

In all the excitement I seem to have accidentally turned off the sync while it was in progress. That may give me some grief. I'm waiting right now for it to resync and hope I am not left with almost nothing which is what is showing right now on my iPhone contents bar.

Sync is taking a really long time or so it seems. That may be the good news as the minimal contents showing above would not have taken as long to sync. It's probably that I did erase my iPhone and now it is taking a while to get almost 8 gb back on there. Be careful when you do your upgrade and don't get nervous and interrupt the sync. This going to take a long while I'm afraid. Showing about 60 files of 468 to sync.

I think a 32gb iPhone is coming this year

I could be wrong, but I'm thinking Apple has got to do a 32gb iPhone. There is already a 16gb version as of February. There's a 32gb iPod touch. I'm thinking they wanted to reposition the iPhone as cheaper and they'll probably charge $399 for the 32gb version. Releasing that now spoils their cheaper message. That's all the evidence I have but it may stop me from buying a 16gb iPhone in July.

Update on July 8. Well, July 11 is coming soon and I still don't have any good evidence for a 32gb iPhone in September... that's going to make it tough to resist buying a 16gb iPhone Friday.

Update on July 10. No word on another iPhone 32gb. However, lots of people believe there will be one and that it is likely to be released in September when new iPods are announced. The other possible release date for such a phone is at the MacWorld Expo in January. A long, long time from now.

There have been rumors all along of a higher-end iPhone. All the early adopters will want one if they can afford it including me. Will it have a better camera? The lack of an upgrade to the camera in the 3G iPhone is one of the reasons I think there is a higher end version of the iPhone in the works.

One last thought. Apple got in big trouble when they dropped the price of the iPhone from $599 to $399 in September. They would get into big trouble if they release a better iPhone in September. But if we can just bring our iPhone 3G in and trade for a small restocking fee it would be OK.

iPhone Stocks and Weather apps need an upgrade

The bloom is off the rose of iPhone 1 by now. You must be able to drill down to get more details before being cast off to the big web for more info.

When I look at the weather, I need a lot more than the current temperature. How about an hour by hour forecast for the next few hours plus options for tomorrow?

I know, the current weather widget is almost glanceable but you have to tap first, by then you might as well see a little more info.

Yahoo!'s stock widget cries out for an ability to drill down. If my stock drops precipitously, I'll stop and look more carefully. I may well need to make a decision involving thousands of dollars. Earn your keep, iPhone!

The iPhone is a computer in my pocket with a high Rez touch screen. It is my always on, always with me real-time connection to the world. Don't limit it.

While you are at it, let me email screenshots of these widgets. My friends and stock broker are standing by.

[Check graphpaper.com circa Feb 08 for more on this]

Upgrade to the 3G iPhone? Pros and Cons

I think I will upgrade. Here's what I'm thinking:

Cons:
• $30/month data plan instead of current $20/month
• No free SMS messages, so add $5 more per mo for that
• I already have a perfectly good iPhone that still works
• I only use EDGE 10% of the time now. 3G replaces EDGE.
• I don't know how good 3G coverage will be in my area.
• 3G drains battery life at twice the speed
• What if a 32gb iPhone 2 is released in September?

Pros:
• 3G speeds may mean I use my iPhone more when away from wi-fi
• 3G speeds mean when there's no wi-fi, the experience is better
• GPS will make burgeoning location based services better
• Better reception
• You sound better to the people you are calling
• Much better audio from the speakers (according to Steve)
• Looks a little better with the new design
• The expensive data plan is about like other 3G plans
• I get the subsidized price after only 1 year on my previous plan
• 3G lets you receive calls while surfing the Net!
• Get to see what it's like to have the best 3G phone on the planet

Update: Good stuff you should read - hands on reviews out July 9:
Walt Mossberg, Wall Street Journal
Edward Baig, USA Today
David Pogue, New York Times

3G iPhone with GPS, MobileMe Analysis

More News:

0. Reception is noticeably better according to Gizmodo hands-on.

.5 "3G data on the maps and browser were only slightly slower than WiFi" - Gizmodo.

1. $30/month: for he AT&T 3G data plan. Keep in mind, 3G will cost you an extra $10/month. 1 year is $120. 2 years is $240. Also, I hear you don't get any free SMS messages (currently I get 200 free/mo.) I'll pay just because there will be times when I'm stuck away from wi-fi and want to get stuff done with relative speed.

2. $45/month for unlimited 3G data for business - assume that is for Exchange support

3. iPhone 3G is a tiny bit bigger 115.5 x 62.1 x 12.3 mm vs 115 x 61 x 11.6 mm. But it is "thinner feeling" according to Gizmodo.

4. iPhone 3G is ever so slightly lighter. 4.7 oz. or 133 grams vs 135 grams for 1st gen iPhone.

5. You have to sign a new 2 year contract to get these great prices. So that puts you at 3 more years if you bought on iPhone day 1. That means it will cost you about $175 to break a 2 year contract and then you pay another $300 if you want the cool 16 gb model.

6. Improved battery life. Sort of. You get 10 instead of 8 hours of 2G talk time and 5 hours of 3G talk time. Not sure why 3G matters when you are talking on the phone -- maybe it is operating in the background.

The Keynote finished up a couple hours ago. We now know that Apple will deliver the 3G iPhone on July 11th. It will sell for $199 for the 8 gb model and $299 for the 16 gb model. At that price, of course, I will buy one. I was prepared to spend $600 if I had to.

3G iPhone. First thing, Apple is delivering a cheap iPhone and it has 3G plus GPS. I wasn't expecting so much for so little. He is aggressively competing against smartphones: Nokia, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile and Treo. It is clear that Apple considers the success of the iPhone as the centerpiece of its business.

MobileMe. I'm very happy about the MobileMe announcement. DotMac is dead. Long live MobileMe. Same price $99 a year, but a lot more value. Now you get 20 gigs of storage instead of 10. That's pretty good certainly that will store some of my most important files plus backup my iPhone if I need it to.

"Think of MobileMe as 'Exchange for the rest of us,' Now users who are not part of an enterprise that runs Exchange can get the same push email, push calendars and push contacts that the big guys get." - Steve Jobs

More to follow. This article is a work in progress. I should have much more in the next few minutes. I'm going to watch the keynote and explore Apple's website.

Stevenote: 3G iPhone w/ GPS $199-299 July 11th

Check the Apple site for details. Here are highlights for the keynote.

1. iPhone 3G Introduced. GPS. "Location-based services are going to explode" says Steve. $199 for the 8 gb in black. $299 for 16 gb black or white. Improved audio. 1/2 the price. Same 2 megapixel camera.

2. iPhone 2.0 is $9.95 for the iPod touch. 3.5" display.

3. MobileMe replaces .Mac with 20 gigs of Storage $99/year. "Exchange for the rest of us." It works over the air to your iPhone and Macs and PCs. It's at www.me.com. Cool!!! Shows your iCal calendar exactly like it looks on your Mac. Photos will live update wirelessly to your gallery.me.com page. Mail looks like Mail except it is online. iPhone has a new Send to MobileMe button for your photos.

4. Full Microsoft and iWork support.

5. Push Notification Service to capture stuff while your app may not be active cuz you are using another app. This is to compensate for apps running one at a time. Available September.

6. Band - see pictured above : very cool Moo Cow Music thing called.

7. Native TypePad blogging application.

8. Super Monkeyball is launching day1 on the Appstore - hoping that's today. $9.99

9. Snow Leopard is real -- not available but will be talked about later in the keynote

[Photos via Engadget]

To Learn More, I recommend:

Tech Trader's keynote coverage

Engadget on the KeyNote Announcements

Authentic-looking-seeming 3G iPhones Red/Black

This may be the first true iPhone 3G reveal. These pix come from CrunchGear. See several photos there.

Bottom lines: (1) Colors: Black and Red, (2) 3G, (3) 2nd video camera, (4) Thinner! and (5) stereo speakers on back.

[Thanks to Bwana McCall on Plurk for the tip to the story]

Update 11:43 pm: Engadget says they think this is a fake.